As the two major raw materials that dominate the lifeblood of polyester production-PTA and ethylene glycol (MEG), their market trends have always been shared by mutual honor and disgrace. However, the recent trend of PTA and ethylene glycol, which are also polyester raw materials, has deviated. After a large increase in the previous period, ethylene glycol quickly entered a downward channel. However, PTA ended the continuous downturn and steadily rose. Why is there such a situation?

The two products are both polyester materials. Why are the trends so deviated? Personally, the main reasons are the following.

First of all, the starting point is different. PTA has been consolidating at a low level for a long time. In a few years, no decent market has appeared. However, ethylene glycol has a high degree of trust in imports and is often taken care of by funds. There is no obvious follow-up, and the market is tepid consolidation.

Second, the trend of PTA-related petroleum is very obvious, while ethylene glycol is relatively weak. According to the current trend, international crude oil has seen a significant rise and has reached a new high in the past few years. Related products are aromatic hydrocarbon series. Following the rise, the price of upstream PX as PTA rose from US$970-980/ton three weeks ago to US$1020-1030/ton, an increase of US$50/ton (converted to Renminbi, there is an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton) Although PTA has risen, processing profits have not increased. Therefore, there is still a large upward space driven by the upstream. However, the trend of ethylene glycol-related oil is weak, and the upstream ethylene price is also declining, resulting in the cost of ethylene glycol. Little support.

Third, the profit of polyester factories is considerable. Long fiber has a profit of 700-800, short fiber has a profit of 400-500, and the profit of bottle flakes is as high as more than 2000. The higher profit level has increased the interest of the polyester factory. Recently, PTA plants have been overhauled more frequently, and the supply and demand side has formed a greater support for PTA, and the continued high inventory of ethylene glycol has formed a clear negative for the trend of ethylene glycol.

From the above situation, the arbitrage trading of long PTA and empty ethylene glycol can still be carried out, but since the cumulative decline in ethylene glycol has been large, we should pay attention to the changes in the trend of ethylene glycol at any time.

Link to this article： The same as polyester raw materials, why are PTA and ethylene glycol two different things

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