1. Seasonal analysis of LME nickel prices

1. Probability of rise and fall

There are 4 months in a year where the probability of nickel price increase exceeds 50%, namely, January, 2, October, and December. Among them, the probability of increase in January and the monthly rate of return are the largest, with the probability of increase as high as 81.25%, and the monthly return is The rate of increase was 4.66%, so January had the most upward momentum; June’s increase probability and monthly yield were the lowest, followed by September and November. Generally speaking, in April of the coming year from November, nickel prices are the easiest to rise. In other time periods, it was mainly down or volatile.

2. Relative correlation method

Consistent with the results obtained from the analysis of the ups and downs probability method, the nickel price rose the strongest in the first quarter; the rebound began in November and December, and it continued in April of the coming year.

3. The fundamental logic of seasonal characteristics

The Philippines is almost the country with the largest nickel ore production in the world. 90% of my country’s nickel ore comes from the Philippines; therefore, the export speed of the Philippines has a very large impact on the price of nickel. Generally, the rainy season in the Philippines starts from September and October to March and April of the coming year. During this period, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore is very small, and the nickel price is most likely to rise during this period.

From the analysis of seasonal factors, stainless steel production will be low in February every year. As February enters, the stainless steel market will be affected by the Spring Festival factor. Part of the maintenance, stainless steel plant profits will be damaged, the output will remain low, and the inventory decline will support nickel prices; the Philippines in April At the end of the rainy season, the import of nickel ore will increase, and the increase in the production of nickel and iron will increase the supply of nickel. This situation will continue until October; after November, the Spring Festival is approaching, and short-term demand weakens, even if there is a disturbance in the reduction of imported ore It is also difficult for prices to have the momentum to rise sharply.

2. Huatong Nonferrous Spot Price Trend

According to the spot quotation of Huatong Nonferrous Metals, after a period of rebound, Nonferrous Metals entered differentiation on Friday. Spots fell more and rose less, tin rose the most, 1# tin rose 1250 points; copper followed, 1# copper rose 130 points; Zinc, aluminum and nickel fell across the board. Among them, the spot price of 1# zinc fell 50 points, the spot price of 1# nickel fell 25 points, aluminum ingots fell 10 points, and lead prices remained flat. On the whole, the spot market will return to fundamental factors in the short term, the delivery date is approaching, and the downstream will maintain rigid demand. Next Monday will be the last trading day, and the quotation will also be transferred to the next contract.

3. News

[Goldman Sachs lowered its copper price forecast but said that the market’s pessimism was overwhelming] After increasing trade tensions caused metal prices to fall sharply, Goldman Sachs, which has been holding a bullish outlook for soaring commodities this year, lowered its metal price forecasts, including copper, but Even so, the bank still insists on a positive long-term view, and base metal prices will rebound. "Although we don't expect a full-scale trade war to erupt, there is huge uncertainty and there is no hope that the problem will be resolved in the near future," the bank said in a report received on Thursday.

[China's trade account in June] China's June trade account (in US dollars) is US$41.61 billion, which is expected to be US$27.72 billion, and the previous value is US$24.92 billion. China's June imports were 14.1% year-on-year (in US dollars), expected to be 21.3%, and the previous value was 26%. China's exports in June were 11.3% year-on-year (in U.S. dollars), which is expected to be 9.5%, and the previous value was 12.6%.

[Domestic and imported goods did not arrive this week, and zinc stocks in the three places continued to fall] This Wednesday, the zinc social stocks in the three places dropped by around 10,000 tons from last Friday to 99,300 tons, and the three places recorded a decline. Main reasons: On the one hand, zinc prices fell this week, and during the period it fell to the limit, refineries were reluctant to sell. In addition, there were more maintenance companies in July, and the overall market received less goods; on the other hand, downstream consumption remained stable, and zinc prices fell sharply this week. Replenishing stocks on dips drives the market out of stocks.

Link to this article： Seasonal analysis of metallic nickel

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